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Climate Change Impact on Cotton Supply – Risks & Mitigation
World Bank’s Climate & Agriculture 2023 warns: by 2030, rising temperatures (+1.8°C) and erratic rainfall could reduce global cotton yields by 12–18%.
Regional impacts:
· Punjab, India: pest outbreaks up 27%, pesticide use surging
· Texas, USA: drought doubles irrigation costs
· Xinjiang, China: glacier melt threatens long-term water security
Price volatility persists. ICE cotton futures spiked from $0.80/lb (2021) to $1.58/lb (2022), now stabilizing around $1.10, but volatility remains historically high.
Mitigation strategies:
· Raw material diversification: LVMH’s Château Cheval Blanc trials hemp as cotton alternative
· Drought-resistant seeds: Bayer’s “DroughtGuard” GM cotton cuts water use by 35%
· Strategic stockpiling: Hilton maintains 6-month safety inventory
· Futures hedging: Accor trades ICE cotton options to lock in 3-year prices
FAO promotes climate-resilient agriculture: drip irrigation, organic farming. Currently, only 7% of cotton fields use regenerative practices—huge potential.
Sources: World Bank Climate-Agriculture Report 2023, ICE Futures Market Data, FAO Cotton Production Outlook, Bayer CropScience Field Trial Results.
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